Aids rate in young women drops
South Africa has recorded the first significant drop in the HIV and Aids rate since 1990, with women younger than 20 showing a 2,2 percent decrease in prevalence.
But although Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang said the encouraging results of the 2006 Annual Antenatal Survey were a cause for celebration, the department has acknowledged that the decrease is inconclusive.
Dr Lindiwe Makubalo, chief director for monitoring and evaluation, said other empirical studies would need to be conducted to verify whether the decrease was a real one.
The survey showed the overall HIV and Aids prevalence among pregnant women using public antenatal clinics to be 29,1 percent in 2006, against 30,2 percent in 2005.
However, the infection rate for women in the 30-34, 35-39 and 40-plus age groups showed respective increases of 0,6 percent, 1,3 percent and 1,5 percent.
The decreases in the younger-age categories dovetail with predictions by UNAids that HIV and Aids incidence in South Africa would plateau out and decline in the next few years.
Makubalo said the trend would therefore need to be observed carefully for confirmation in the next three years. The government, therefore, could not afford to be complacent.
Makubalo noted, however, that the decrease in the under-24 categories was significant because a decline in prevalence in young women was suggestive of a decline in new HIV infections.
In addition, the modelling used to collate the survey data adjusted the figures to take death rates into consideration, so the decreases could not be attributed to higher fatalities among young women.
From the study, the department deduced that the number of people estimated to be living with HIV in South Africa is about 5,41 million, down slightly from the previous estimate of 5,54 million.
Overall, HIV prevalence among adults between 15 and 49 was estimated at 18,34 percent.
The minister said a big thank-you to the youth of the country for "taking prevention messages seriously".
The overall picture suggested that HIV prevalence "may be at the point where we should begin to witness a downward trend", she said.
She added that she did not want to give the impression that the department intended "throwing a party" because of the results.
"HIV and Aids is still a public health problem and we need to redouble our efforts in this regard," she said.
Makubalo said the prevalence increases for women older than 30 were likely due to women in stable relationships finding it increasingly difficult to get their partners to use condoms or to follow any of the other prevention messages encouraged by the department.
There was also the possibility that increases were due to infected women merely moving age categories - what she described as the cohort factor.
A total of 33 034 pregnant women attending public antenatal clinics participated in the study at 1 415 facilities - double the number of participants in the 2005 study.
Provincially, prevalence has progressed at different paces. In Gauteng, prevalence has decreased from 32,4 percent in 2005 to 30,8 percent in 2006.
The Free State was the only province to show an increase (0,8 percent), while the other seven provinces recorded decreases in prevalence of between 0,6 and 3,1 percent. KwaZulu-Natal's rate remained the same.
The highest prevalence rate in the country is found in KwaZulu-Natal (39,1 percent) and the lowest in the Western Cape (15,1 percent).
For the first time, the survey included prevalence data for each district, with rates varying greatly between areas within districts in some instances.
The district with the highest prevalence was Amajuba (KwaZulu-Natal) with 46 percent, with the Northern Cape's Namakwe district showing the lowest prevalence, 5,3 percent.
Source: http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?from=rss_South%20Africa&set_id=1&click_id=13&art_id=vn20070803003838686C316416
But although Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang said the encouraging results of the 2006 Annual Antenatal Survey were a cause for celebration, the department has acknowledged that the decrease is inconclusive.
Dr Lindiwe Makubalo, chief director for monitoring and evaluation, said other empirical studies would need to be conducted to verify whether the decrease was a real one.
The survey showed the overall HIV and Aids prevalence among pregnant women using public antenatal clinics to be 29,1 percent in 2006, against 30,2 percent in 2005.
However, the infection rate for women in the 30-34, 35-39 and 40-plus age groups showed respective increases of 0,6 percent, 1,3 percent and 1,5 percent.
The decreases in the younger-age categories dovetail with predictions by UNAids that HIV and Aids incidence in South Africa would plateau out and decline in the next few years.
Makubalo said the trend would therefore need to be observed carefully for confirmation in the next three years. The government, therefore, could not afford to be complacent.
Makubalo noted, however, that the decrease in the under-24 categories was significant because a decline in prevalence in young women was suggestive of a decline in new HIV infections.
In addition, the modelling used to collate the survey data adjusted the figures to take death rates into consideration, so the decreases could not be attributed to higher fatalities among young women.
From the study, the department deduced that the number of people estimated to be living with HIV in South Africa is about 5,41 million, down slightly from the previous estimate of 5,54 million.
Overall, HIV prevalence among adults between 15 and 49 was estimated at 18,34 percent.
The minister said a big thank-you to the youth of the country for "taking prevention messages seriously".
The overall picture suggested that HIV prevalence "may be at the point where we should begin to witness a downward trend", she said.
She added that she did not want to give the impression that the department intended "throwing a party" because of the results.
"HIV and Aids is still a public health problem and we need to redouble our efforts in this regard," she said.
Makubalo said the prevalence increases for women older than 30 were likely due to women in stable relationships finding it increasingly difficult to get their partners to use condoms or to follow any of the other prevention messages encouraged by the department.
There was also the possibility that increases were due to infected women merely moving age categories - what she described as the cohort factor.
A total of 33 034 pregnant women attending public antenatal clinics participated in the study at 1 415 facilities - double the number of participants in the 2005 study.
Provincially, prevalence has progressed at different paces. In Gauteng, prevalence has decreased from 32,4 percent in 2005 to 30,8 percent in 2006.
The Free State was the only province to show an increase (0,8 percent), while the other seven provinces recorded decreases in prevalence of between 0,6 and 3,1 percent. KwaZulu-Natal's rate remained the same.
The highest prevalence rate in the country is found in KwaZulu-Natal (39,1 percent) and the lowest in the Western Cape (15,1 percent).
For the first time, the survey included prevalence data for each district, with rates varying greatly between areas within districts in some instances.
The district with the highest prevalence was Amajuba (KwaZulu-Natal) with 46 percent, with the Northern Cape's Namakwe district showing the lowest prevalence, 5,3 percent.
Source: http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?from=rss_South%20Africa&set_id=1&click_id=13&art_id=vn20070803003838686C316416
posted by AIDS-Care-Watch at 10:43 am
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home